The full ledger

Generated at build time from the picks database (2026-09-18 00:10 UTC). Win% counts decided picks only (wins + losses); pushes and voids are shown, not hidden. Units and ROI are odds-weighted — a +280 winner and a −200 winner are not the same bet, so we don't pretend win rate alone tells the story.

Sport	W	L	Push	Void	Win%	Net units	ROI
NBA	120	107	2	3	52.9%	+1.45	0.5%
NFL	19	13	0	0	—	+2.81	—
Combined	139	120	2	3	53.7%	+4.26	1.4%

NFL: 19-13, +2.81u on 32 settled — too small a sample to read anything into. Win% and ROI are hidden here for the same reason.

How to read this

Breakeven at standard −110 juice is ~52.4%. A record above that on a few hundred picks is consistent with an edge, not proof of one — the sample is still small enough that variance can explain it. Sites that quote a hot win rate without the sample size, the ROI, or the losses are selling the feeling of rigor. This page is the alternative: the whole ledger, odds-weighted, voids labeled, regenerated from the database on every build.

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All-time record across every published pick: 139–120–2 pushes (3 voided) = 53.7% on 259 decided, +4.3 units (1.4% ROI). Honest math: breakeven at −110 is ~52.4%, and at this sample size the edge is not statistically proven. We publish it anyway — every pick, graded, including the losses. Full ledger →