Free pick of the day · Thursday, September 17, 2026

Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills — NFL

PENDING

Isaac TeSlaa UNDER 1.5 receptions (-112)

Prop · 8:15 PM ET

What the model saw

⚠️ **Note:** High variance game (±15 point std dev)

These are the model's own factors, not hand-picked trends.

Get the pick by email

One email per pick day — the pick, the record, nothing else. Unsubscribe any time.

All-time record across every published pick: 139–120–2 pushes (3 voided) = 53.7% on 259 decided, +4.3 units (1.4% ROI). Honest math: breakeven at −110 is ~52.4%, and at this sample size the edge is not statistically proven. We publish it anyway — every pick, graded, including the losses. Full ledger →