Injuries: ⛔ Dennis Schroder (CHA, starter) · ⛔ Moussa Diabate (CHA, rotation) · ⛔ Kon Knueppel (CHA, bench) (+2 more)
Market disagreement: Model margin -2.6 vs book +9.5 (6.9pt gap)
These are the model's own factors, not hand-picked trends.
This side covered in 63.5% of 15,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Simulation rate is a model output, not a promise.
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All-time record across every published pick: 128–121–2 pushes (4 voided)
= 51.4% on 249 decided, +12.3 units (3.7% ROI).
Honest math: breakeven at −110 is ~52.4%, and at this sample size the edge is not statistically proven.
We publish it anyway — every pick, graded, including the losses. Full ledger →