Projects 18.8 pts vs WAS (season avg: 17.0, 78.4% sims cover)
These are the model's own factors, not hand-picked trends.
This side covered in 78.4% of 15,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Simulation rate is a model output, not a promise.
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All-time record across every published pick: 126–115–2 pushes (3 voided)
= 52.3% on 241 decided, +11.6 units (3.5% ROI).
Honest math: breakeven at −110 is ~52.4%, and at this sample size the edge is not statistically proven.
We publish it anyway — every pick, graded, including the losses. Full ledger →