Projects 10.5 RA vs NYK (season avg: 10.7, 80.9% sims cover)
These are the model's own factors, not hand-picked trends.
This side covered in 80.9% of 15,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Simulation rate is a model output, not a promise.
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All-time record across every published pick: 125–115–2 pushes (3 voided)
= 52.1% on 240 decided, +9.1 units (2.8% ROI).
Honest math: breakeven at −110 is ~52.4%, and at this sample size the edge is not statistically proven.
We publish it anyway — every pick, graded, including the losses. Full ledger →