Market disagreement: Model margin +2.2 vs book -7.5 (5.3pt gap)
These are the model's own factors, not hand-picked trends.
This side covered in 72.5% of 15,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Simulation rate is a model output, not a promise.
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All-time record across every published pick: 128–119–2 pushes (4 voided)
= 51.8% on 247 decided, +13.3 units (4.0% ROI).
Honest math: breakeven at −110 is ~52.4%, and at this sample size the edge is not statistically proven.
We publish it anyway — every pick, graded, including the losses. Full ledger →