Market disagreement: Model margin +0.3 vs book -8.5 (8.2pt gap)
These are the model's own factors, not hand-picked trends.
This side covered in 72.7% of 15,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Simulation rate is a model output, not a promise.
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All-time record across every published pick: 139–120–2 pushes (3 voided)
= 53.7% on 259 decided, +4.3 units (1.4% ROI).
Honest math: breakeven at −110 is ~52.4%, and at this sample size the edge is not statistically proven.
We publish it anyway — every pick, graded, including the losses. Full ledger →